The models are indicating that our hot, desert low pressure system will give way to a broad trough of much cooler low pressure arriving from the north. Hence, while temperatures should increase into the mid 30s Celsius across much of the area, with the highest temperatures occurring this Friday, Erev Rosh HaShanah (New Year)-- summer may just be a hot memory of the past by next week's end. In fact, light showers may accompany the initial change, and then more steady showers as Yom Kippur (the day of Atonement) approaches.
Of course, the words unusual and unprecedented should have real meaning, and not be used lightly. The word unusual means: not usual, common or ordinary; uncommon (https://www.dictionary.com/browse/unusual). The word unprecedented means: without previous occurrence, never before known or experienced, unexampled or unparalleled (https://www.dictionary.com/browse/unprecedented).
To determine whether the number of hot days and the number of sick are indeed unusual and unprecedented, one needs to test for statistical significance (https://hbr.org/2016/02/a-refresher-on-statistical-significance). When we make these tests, we are looking to see that the events or efforts we're making to make a change in outcomes are truly unusual, and not just due to random chance.
In regard to our string of hot days, we'd test not just the maximum temperature on any particular day, but the number of consecutive days with extreme temperatures versus the number of days with extreme temperatures in the past. With regard to the Coronavirus, we'd check not just that a relatively high number died in one day, but how many days this has occurred (to confirm that this is a pandemic, not just a passing event).
Of course, we need to define the time period over which we look at the data. While the percentage of those who have died from the corona virus in recent memory is unusually high, there have been previous pandemics (https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html); while the string of very hot days has probably been unusual, there have been similarly hot periods in earth's history (http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm) -- most of us, though, can't remember them (meaning, they are probably unusual in recent history).
The question is: what can we do now to change our current infection rate and increasingly warm world?
In regard to the latter, there are those who argue that humankind has very little to do with changes in earth's climate (just look at the graph in the link above that shows that large variations in temperature occurred well in the past). While one can say that humankind had very little to do with past changes in climate, it is more difficult to claim that our warming world is simply part of natural variability (based on numerically modeled sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases(https://www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-six-graphs-that-explain-how-the-climate-is-changing). Even scientific skeptics admit that there is at least low sensitivity to increasing concentrations of climate gases (https://groene-rekenkamer.nl/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Ontgroeningsdag-Lewis_slidesnotes.pdf). Regardless, small changes in average world temperatures can underlie more dangerous regional climate sensitivities that can lead, for example, to our most recent scorching heat wave or terrible fires (https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-wildfires-are-so-bad-this-year-in-california-oregon-and-washington-11599768604; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/us/climate-change-california-wildfires.html?)
What can we do about it? Reduce CO2 (and methane) gases by increasing the use of renewable energy sources while improving energy efficiency (methods are also available to reduce methane releases from oil and gas production (https://www.wri.org/blog/2016/03/new-joint-announcement-canada-us-gets-serious-about-cutting-methane-emissions) as well as from agriculture (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166111698800162)).
In regard to the Coronavirus, lockdowns, social distancing (and the wearing of masks) seems to be the suggested and useful approach. In fact, lockdowns have vastly slowed the transmission of the virus, while social distancing and wearing masks have also helped (https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdowns-infection-impact). In fact, here in Efrat most people wear masks and many keep their distance from others; hence, our infection rate is still very low.
However, overall Israel's infection rate is skyrocketing, and this has led to a proposal to bring back the lockdown (https://www.timesofisrael.com/ministers-said-to-okay-full-lockdown-as-virus-deaths-infections-reach-new-highs/).
The problem with the lockdown approach, though, is the what comes after part. While the current plan proposes to follow the lock down with a graduated opening, I really can't see how we'll end up anywhere else but where we are now. The simple reason being that some appreciable fraction of Israelis generally don't follow the rules, and even if the majority do so, that leaves plenty of people who either won't wear masks, or wear them improperly (below the nose, even in doctors offices!), and plenty who will still congregate in parties (and this includes both our citizens (https://www.timesofisrael.com/man-arrested-for-alleged-attempt-to-stab-woman-who-commented-on-his-lack-of-mask/) and representatives (https://www.timesofisrael.com/utj-deputy-minister-meir-porush-attends-mass-ultra-orthodox-wedding-in-haifa/)).
Hence, I would adopt a different approach: recommendations that will allow the economy to continue to function.. The government should publish a list of suggestions for reducing the infection rate and for protecting the more vulnerable among us. This will allow individuals to determine their own accepted level of risk. Those who are inclined to protect themselves will for the most part remain healthy, while those who are not will eventually get sick. Hopefully, if enough people get sick the infection rate will drop (the sick and their acquaintances will have learned their lesson) -- some localized areas may even develop a general immunity. This would especially be so if the government would set up field hospitals to treat the expected overflow of patients. There won't be enough doctors and nurses to care for the expected sick, so medics and others will need to be trained.
Unfortunately I don't see any better way out of this: the people get the leadership they deserve, and the leadership gets the people who elected them. When it comes to the Coronavirus, we're simply a failure -- let's not make it worse by ruining the economy as well.
While we seem to be off to an inauspicious start to the New Year, it is still a time for change and even good tidings. In fact, we're expecting shortly the wedding of my nephew with a young woman from New York.
In the Parsha Nitzavim-Vayeilech, we read (noted Rabbi Elazar R. Muskin) that "Moshe went out and spoke these words to all of Israel (Devarim 31:1). The idea that Moshe went out implies that Moshe went and spoke to each of the tribes, individually. Moshe understood the importance of communication, and sought to emphasize that the Torah is for each of us. The emphasis was on communication at the individual level, and this is certainly a necessity in marriage itself.
Yet, communication between husband and wife is not necessarily as easy or as straightforward as that between Moshe and the 12 Tribes. The reason is simple: men and women are quite different from each other in their responses to events. For example, a woman tends to speak out her feelings, while men tend to speak out their successes. One wants empathy and the other wants congratulations. Further, if a man can't solve a problem, he tends to say little (or nothing at all). The result is that the wife might erroneously think that the husband doesn't care, while the man might think that his wife doesn't notice his good points. Both need to make an effort to overcome these marriage hurdles.
One might also keep in mind that when a man does a good deed, it's like he's saved the world, but when a woman does a good deed, she's just being a good wife. Men can count the number of good deeds they do in a day (for instance around the house), while a married woman with children doesn't have enough fingers or toes to count. Men take great pride in doing a single chore (like setting the table), for the simple reason that it's so tiring for them they need to rest in the middle of it. Wives wonder why their husbands can't set the table, fill a bottle, and change a diaper at the same time?
My advice for the husband to be: try to listen and be supportive at the same time. For the wife, don't assume your husband is smart enough to catch things the first time, and give him a big high five if he does.
Rav Soloveitchik discusses ("Probing the Prophets", Torah Tidbits Issue 1387) Yirmihayu's prophecy: "let there speedily be heard in the cities of Judah and in the streets of Jerusalem the sound of joy and the sound of happiness, the sound of a groom and the sound of a bride, the sound of exultation of grooms from under their chupah, and youths from their joyous banquets" in the Sheva Brachot. What is the relationship between the personal happiness of the Bride and Groom and the messianic error? The reason is that a successful marriage requires more than caring for one another, but empathy, which means to understand and share the feelings of others. The goal is to move from being two people getting married to one person being married. What does this mean? Hamy: with regard to your wife, don't give her to do tasks you don't want to do, like taking out the garbage. Penelope: with regard to your husband: remember he, likes you, wants to be better. But, as importantly, you're part of a community. By being part of a community of the Jewish people you have an opportunity through your own efforts and your children's efforts to change the world!
Mazol Tov!
Barry Lynn
